For today's DEEP THINKING task, I'm sounding the alarm on that troubling SPRING BREAK party trend - you know, the one where hordes of college kids, feeling young and invincible, ignore the global pandemic and flood Floridian beaches and Bahamanian cruises!?!
Come on, kiddos...let's think a little bit more deeply about what's going on here. As a case study, I'd like for us to consider the Blackbeard's Revenge DJ Cruise, a party-boast experience out of the island of Nassau.
According to my internet research, the Blackbeard Revenge Cruise lasts 3 hours, and the boat holds 250 head-banging passengers.
Here are my deep-thinking questions today. For Part A, I'm wondering how many party people would become infected with the Corona virus over the course of the DJ Cruise, if just ONE party person has the virus to begin with?
For Part B, I'm calling on us to exercise our powers of persuasion, and to design a message (letter, op-ed, TV ad...) that would effectively discourage these party-cruisers from boarding the boat. Let's get to it!
Part A
Imagine that, at the start of the DJ Cruise, just ONE of of the 250 boat guests has the Corona virus. How many will have the virus by the end of the three hour cruise?
To help model this, you'll benefit from one key concept: The R0, or "basic reproductive ratio." The R0 is a number that informs us how many people, on average, someone carrying a virus infects. For example, the seasonal flu has an R0 of 1.3, which means that every person who has the flu infects an average of 1.3 other people (or, said otherwise, every 3 flu carriers infects 4 people - see how I did that?). The R0 of COVID-19 is estimated to be 2.0.
PHOTO CREDIT: WIKIPEDIA.ORG
Based on this information, the length of the cruise ride (3 hours), and the number of passengers (250), how many do you predict will leave the cruise infected with the virus - if just ONE of those passengers has it to begin with? (Extensions: do you think your estimate runs over or under? Why? What if 3 passengers (roughly 1%) had the virus to begin with?
Part B
For Part B, join me in my desire to DISSUADE these college partiers from hitting the beaches and the boat decks. Construct a message (speech, image, TV ad...) that you believe might have effectively discourage the party-cruisers from boarding the Blackbeard Revenge Cruise.
As you construct your message, consider your audience! Consider, also, the classic modes of persuasion: Ethos, an appeal rooted in credibility; Pathos, an appeal rooted in emotion; and Logos, an appeal rooted in logic or reason. Which mode - or which mode(s) in combination - would best support the efficacy of your argument? For more on persuasive modes, check out this interesting blog post that discuss them int he context of advertising: https://www.studiobinder.com/blog/ethos-pathos-logos/
I'm a bit terrified to see your response to Part A - but hopeful and eager to see your work for Part B!
Think Deeply, Share Broadly (and STAY OFF THE BOAT!) -- Mr. Malone
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